diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index b5cd0f5..1802d63 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -67,11 +67,11 @@ To update this file: time cargo run --release -- --write-results-table ``` -On the first 20000 seeds, we have these average scores and win rates: +On the first 20000 seeds, we have these scores and win rates (average ± standard error): | | 2p | 3p | 4p | 5p | -|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| -| cheat | 24.8594 | 24.9785 | 24.9720 | 24.9557 | -| | 90.59 % | 98.17 % | 97.76 % | 96.42 % | -| info | 22.5194 | 24.7942 | 24.9354 | 24.9220 | -| | 12.58 % | 84.46 % | 95.03 % | 94.01 % | +|---------|------------------|------------------|------------------|------------------| +| cheat | 24.8594 ± 0.0036 | 24.9785 ± 0.0012 | 24.9720 ± 0.0014 | 24.9557 ± 0.0018 | +| | 90.59 ± 0.21 % | 98.17 ± 0.09 % | 97.76 ± 0.10 % | 96.42 ± 0.13 % | +| info | 22.5194 ± 0.0125 | 24.7942 ± 0.0039 | 24.9354 ± 0.0022 | 24.9220 ± 0.0024 | +| | 12.58 ± 0.23 % | 84.46 ± 0.26 % | 95.03 ± 0.15 % | 94.01 ± 0.17 % | diff --git a/src/main.rs b/src/main.rs index 86ff353..1568470 100644 --- a/src/main.rs +++ b/src/main.rs @@ -167,13 +167,14 @@ fn get_results_table() -> String { let n_trials = 20000; let n_threads = 8; - let intro = format!("On the first {} seeds, we have these average scores and win rates:\n\n", n_trials); - let format_name = |x| format!(" {:7} ", x); - let format_players = |x| format!(" {}p ", x); - let format_percent = |x| format!(" {:05.2} % ", x); - let format_score = |x| format!(" {:07.4} ", x); - let space = String::from(" "); - let dashes = String::from("---------"); + let intro = format!("On the first {} seeds, we have these scores and win rates (average ± standard error):\n\n", n_trials); + let format_name = |x| format!(" {:7} ", x); + let format_players = |x| format!(" {}p ", x); + let format_percent = |x, stderr| format!(" {:05.2} ± {:.2} % ", x, stderr); + let format_score = |x, stderr| format!(" {:07.4} ± {:.4} ", x, stderr); + let space = String::from(" "); + let dashes = String::from("---------"); + let dashes_long = String::from("------------------"); type TwoLines = (String, String); fn make_twolines(player_nums: &Vec, head: TwoLines, make_block: &dyn Fn(u32) -> TwoLines) -> TwoLines { let mut blocks = player_nums.iter().cloned().map(make_block).collect::>(); @@ -187,11 +188,16 @@ fn get_results_table() -> String { fn concat_twolines(body: Vec) -> String { body.into_iter().fold(String::default(), |output, (a, b)| (output + &a + "\n" + &b + "\n")) } - let header = make_twolines(&player_nums, (space.clone(), dashes.clone()), &|n_players| (format_players(n_players), dashes.clone())); + let header = make_twolines(&player_nums, + (space.clone(), dashes.clone()), + &|n_players| (format_players(n_players), dashes_long.clone())); let mut body = strategies.iter().map(|strategy| { make_twolines(&player_nums, (format_name(strategy), space.clone()), &|n_players| { let simresult = sim_games(n_players, strategy, Some(seed), n_trials, n_threads, None); - (format_score(simresult.average_score()), format_percent(simresult.percent_perfect())) + ( + format_score(simresult.average_score(), simresult.score_stderr()), + format_percent(simresult.percent_perfect(), simresult.percent_perfect_stderr()) + ) }) }).collect::>(); body.insert(0, header); diff --git a/src/simulator.rs b/src/simulator.rs index 831521f..cf96183 100644 --- a/src/simulator.rs +++ b/src/simulator.rs @@ -97,6 +97,17 @@ impl Histogram { pub fn average(&self) -> f32 { (self.sum as f32) / (self.total_count as f32) } + pub fn stdev_of_average(&self) -> f32 { + let average = self.average(); + let mut var_sum = 0.0; + for (&val, &count) in self.hist.iter() { + var_sum += (val as f32 - average).powi(2) * count as f32; + } + // Divide by (self.total_count - 1) estimate the variance of the distribution, + // then divide by self.total_count estimate the variance of the sample average, + // then take the sqrt to get the stdev. + (var_sum / (((self.total_count - 1) * self.total_count) as f32)).sqrt() + } pub fn merge(&mut self, other: Histogram) { for (val, count) in other.hist.into_iter() { self.insert_many(val, count); @@ -196,10 +207,20 @@ impl SimResult { self.scores.percentage_with(&PERFECT_SCORE) * 100.0 } + pub fn percent_perfect_stderr(&self) -> f32 { + let pp = self.percent_perfect() / 100.0; + let stdev = (pp*(1.0 - pp) / ((self.scores.total_count - 1) as f32)).sqrt(); + stdev * 100.0 + } + pub fn average_score(&self) -> f32 { self.scores.average() } + pub fn score_stderr(&self) -> f32 { + self.scores.stdev_of_average() + } + pub fn average_lives(&self) -> f32 { self.lives.average() }